Step 1 · Your portfolio

Run 1,000 retirements through your numbers

Same starting balance. Same withdrawal. Same average return. The market gets one random sequence per simulation. We tally the % of simulations where you survive.

Starting Balance

Today's portfolio

Year 1 Withdrawal

5% of $1M = the “4% rule”-ish

Annual COLA / Inflation

Withdrawal grows by this % yearly

Years in Retirement

Plan-to age minus start age

Avg Annual Return

Long-run expected (e.g. 60/40 ~7%)

Annual Volatility (std dev)

% — S&P 500 ~15-18%; 60/40 ~10-12%

Probability of plan success

—

Worst 10%

Bad-market path

—

Median (middle 50%)

Typical path

—

Best 10%

Good-market path

—

How to read this

The dark gray band is the middle 80% of all 1,000 simulations — the realistic range of where your portfolio could end up. The green line is the median (the “most likely” outcome). Failures (paths where balance hit $0) are not redrawn; they pull the bottom band toward zero.

Anything below 80% success is considered fragile by most retirement researchers. 90%+ is the comfort zone. If you're below 80%, the levers that move the needle most are: (1) reduce withdrawal rate, (2) delay Social Security, (3) shift some portfolio into a guaranteed-income floor (annuity / bond ladder) so the market doesn't have to do all the work.

The 4% rule, examined. “4% of starting balance, adjusted for inflation, for 30 years” gave a ~95% success rate in U.S. historical backtests. Real-world today: starting valuations matter. Plug in your real numbers above — the answer is rarely the same as the textbook rule.

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